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中国与世界,环境危机大家谈 WHERE CHINA AND THE WORLD DISCUSS THE ENVIRONMENT

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上次 Last post: 10 Feb 20:53
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“未知”或许是好事

科学研究最忌讳以偏概全,无法实事求是。这就是为什么最近一系列被媒体捅出来的关于气候变化的质疑受到广泛的讨论。基于自身条件所限,民众没有别的方法,只能选择相信科学家。如果科学家因为种种原因,信口雌黄,或者只为了某种利益有意忽视真相的另一面,被揭穿后,这种无条件的信任就崩溃了。

因此我宁愿听到科学家说“事情很复杂,我们还在研究”,也不希望他们斩钉截铁的下定论:“是的,2035年,冰川就消失了。”

Perhaps the "Unknown" Is a Good Thing

More than anything, scientific research tries to avoid taking a part for the whole. This is why recently the questioning of climate change has received so much media attention. Because of our own limitations, people can do nothing but choose which scientists to believe. And if scientists, for whatever reason, make unfounded claims or intentionally ignore facts for some other gain, when they are exposed, this unconditional confidence in them will collapse.

This is why I would rather hear them say, "It's a very complicated issue, we still have more research to do." And by the same token, I wouldn't want them to reach an unequivocal conclusion: "Yes, in 2035, the glaciers will have disappeared."
Comment translated by Clay Baylor

喀喇昆仑—喜马拉雅的冰川变化

我认同卡加德先生对于这个复杂而且充满矛盾的讨论的平衡性评估。
我要澄清一下他所引用的我的评论。尤其涉及到喀喇昆仑中部的两个盆地和2005年到2009年期间前进的高纬度冰川。实际上它们是过去十年里我在喀喇昆仑山最高处的“穆斯塔卡”观察到的30多座冰川的一部分,包括长度从小型到中级(10-40千米)的冰川。在喀喇昆仑最大的冰川上我只观察到了冰体加厚或者冰体边缘冰碛过度堆积的广泛迹象,但这看上去似乎是还未影响到(可能会,也可能不会)遥远终点的扩散证据。
我再加一句,直到最近,我的观察依然遭到了甚至是工作在其他地区的冰川学家的挑战和质疑,但是现在看来却是被接受的。然而,证据似乎很明显,在亚洲高地和世界的大多数其他地区冰川覆盖正在减少。在两者任意一种情况下,气候变化都是关键所在,只是比之前的想法更加复杂。

Glacier change in the Karakoram Himlaya

I commend Mr Khadka on a balanced assessment of a complicated and, of late, badly conflicted discussion.

I would just clarify the comment of mine he cited. It referred specifically to observations in two basins of the central Karakoram and high altitude glaciers which had advance between 2005 and 2009. In fact they are part of more than 30 glaciers I have observed advancing in the past decade in the highest "Mustag" part of the Karakoram in involve small to intermediate glaciers (10-40km) in length. On the largest Karakoram glaciers I have only observed widespread evidence of thickening of the ice or over-riding of the ice margin moraines, but this seemed evidence of expansion which has not yet (and may or may not?) affect the distant termini.
Let me add that until quite recently, my observations were challenged or dismissed by even by glaciologists working in other regions, but now seem to be accepted. However, the evidence seems clear that the ice cover is diminishing in most other regions of High asia and the world. In either case, climate change is the key, just more complicated than fomerly thought.


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